InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position for the DeSoto Appeal (9/24, likely voters):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s a one-day sample, so take that for what it’s worth, but it’s in-line with a recent R2K poll that showed the exact same numbers. In that poll, Musgrove was winning African-American voters by 75-7 and losing among white voters by 23-73. InsiderAdvantage paints a somewhat different picture, with Musgrove and Wicker splitting the black vote by 77-20. The article doesn’t share the breakdown of the white vote, but it would have to be higher than 23% for Musgrove in order for the top lines to balance out.
If Wicker earns 20% of the black vote in November, it’s game over for Musgrove (barring some unexpected over-performance among whites), but that would be a truly remarkable performance for Wicker — and I don’t think he’s there yet. (Although perhaps the lack of party ID on the ballot could cut both ways.)
This one remains close (and the DSCC continues to pump in a lot of ads), but it’s hard not to give Wicker a slight edge for now.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
That being said, one of the trouble spots of the R2K polls have been the high number of undecided black voters. As much it might pain Musgrove, trying to get a quiet Obama endorsement here would shore up any problems. Don Cazayoux recently did this. Of course, he would risk alienating the conservatives whites he needs too. It’s quite the balancing act.
I wonder if Roger and Ronnie were sitting in the audience at the debate last night in Oxford? It’s pretty obvious that Wicker would show up to support McCain. But what about Musgrove?